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Key Findings

California voters have now received their mail ballots, and the November 8 general election has entered its terminal phase. Amid rise prices and economic uncertainty—as well as deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a swell deal of information to help them cull land constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions near state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which political party controls the US Firm.

These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October fourteen to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:

Many Californians accept negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy. Seventy-six percent rate the nation's economy as "not and then good" or "poor." Xxx-ix percent say their finances are "worse off" today than a year ago. Forty-seven per centum say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent recall things in the US are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→
Amid probable voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor'southward election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Lx percent are very or adequately closely following news about the governor's race. Sixty-two pct are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor's election.→
When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yeah on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling), and 41 percent would vote yes on Proposition thirty (reducing greenhouse gases). Most likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent think it would be a "bad thing" if it became legal in the country. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote event of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→
50-half-dozen percent of probable voters would support the Democratic candidate in their US Firm race if the election were today. Sixty-one percentage say the result of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this yr; Democrats are far more probable than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About half are "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
Forty-v per centum of Californians and xl percent of likely voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the Usa. Republicans are far less probable than Democrats and independents to concur this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views can withal come up together and work out their differences.→
Majorities of California adults and likely voters corroborate of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Virtually four in 10 or more than California adults and likely voters approve of Us Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary beyond partisan groups. Approving of the state legislature is higher than approving of the US Congress.→

Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to get until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the country is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of probable voters (54%) call back the state is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view terminal month (wrong management: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; right direction: l% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a wide partisan divide: 7 in ten Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the state, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the incorrect direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic about California's direction.

figure - Half or fewer Californians have said the state is going in the right direction throughout 2022

Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they are almost the direction of the land. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United States is going in the wrong direction, and majorities take held this view since September 2021. I in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, besides as across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the U.s.a..

figure - The share of adults who say the United States is going in the right direction has been trending downward since mid-2021

The state of the economy and aggrandizement are likely to play a critical role in the upcoming election, and near four in x adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a twelvemonth ago. Similar shares say they are financially in virtually the aforementioned spot (43% adults, 44% probable voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly among likely voters since May, just is similar amid adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one year agone (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A wide partisan divide exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the aforementioned equally a yr ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are most the same, while one-half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided betwixt being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same as last year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% most the same, 33% worse off, 16% improve off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% improve off). The shares saying they are worse off reject every bit educational attainment increases.

With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in not so proficient (43% adults, 40% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. Near a quarter of adults (iii% excellent, 20% skillful) and probable voters (2% first-class, 23% good) feel positively about the national economy. Stiff majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the country's major regions likewise as all demographic groups say the economy is in non so good or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percent (3% first-class, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively about the U.s.a. economy, while 74 percent (36% not so skillful, 38% poor) expressed negative views.

Gubernatorial Election

Six in ten likely voters say they are following news almost the 2022 governor's race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from one-half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, 40% closely) a calendar month earlier the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or fairly closely. The shares maxim they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (xxx%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $xl,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are post-obit the news closely.

figure - Six in ten likely voters are following news about candidates for the 2022 governor's election at least fairly closely

Autonomous incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among probable voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don't know who they would vote for in the governor's race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a calendar month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among contained probable voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the land's regions, two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, every bit do virtually one-half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Central Valley are split up. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% high school just, 56% some higher, sixty% higher graduates), while it decreases with rise income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $40,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote to reelect Gavin Newsom if the election were held today

A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November 8 election, while nearly three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a calendar month agone (53%) and were like prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% October 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the state's regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

Land Propositions 26, 27, and thirty

In the upcoming November viii election, there will be seven state propositions for voters. Due to fourth dimension constraints, our survey only asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and thirty. For each, we read the proffer number, ballot, and ballot label. Two of the state ballot measures were also included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 pct of probable voters would vote "yes," 57 percent would vote "no," and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would let in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make sure payments to the state to back up state regulatory costs. It also allows roulette and die games at tribal casinos and adds a new mode to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than four in x Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote "yeah." Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (51% yep, 44% no)—would vote "yes."

If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote "yep," 67 percent would vote "no," and eight percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens' initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Potent majorities across partisan groups would vote "no" on Prop 27. The share voting "yes" has decreased since a calendar month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than iii in 10 across partisan groups would vote "yes" on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than iv in ten beyond regions, gender, racial/indigenous, education, and income groups would vote "yeah." Likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older likely voters ages 45 and higher up (19%) to say they would vote "yes."

If the election were held today, 41 percent of probable voters would vote "aye," 52 percent would vote "no," and seven pct are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition thirty—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens' initiative would increment taxes on Californians earning more than than $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to cypher-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying "yes" on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in "no on Prop xxx" commercials). Today, dissimilar Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop thirty: 61 percent of Democrats would vote "yep," compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and amidst men and women, back up falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote "yes" (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). But over half of probable voters with incomes nether $twoscore,000 (52%) would vote "yes," compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Nearly half of likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (49%) would vote "yes," compared to 37 percent of older probable voters.

figure - Overall support for Prop 26, 27, and 30 falls short of a majority, with partisans divided

Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these country propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 per centum say the outcome of Prop 30 is very of import. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a month agone for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when information technology comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, i in iv or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. About ane in 3 across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the effect of Prop 30 is very important to them.

figure - The share of likely voters who say the outcome of the vote is very important differs by proposition

Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans back up their political party's candidate, while independents are divided (l% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-betoken margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-betoken margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined past the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the election for Congress were held today

Abortion is another prominent event in this election. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the issue is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another twenty pct say it is somewhat important; simply 17 percent say it is non too or non at all of import. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say information technology is very important, compared to 43 percentage of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very of import when making their choice among candidates for Congress.

figure - A solid majority of likely voters say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year

With the controlling party in Congress hanging in the rest, 51 percent of probable voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this twelvemonth; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percent are either not as well or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the last midterm ballot, a similar 53 per centum of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans take about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less probable to be extremely or very enthusiastic. One-half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Surface area (43%). At least one-half beyond demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a loftier schoolhouse diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and xviii- to 44-year-olds (37%).

Democracy and the Political Divide

As Californians set up to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United states—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percentage of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and about four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to about one in v Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are non at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school degree or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).

figure - Fewer than half of Californians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States

In improver to the lack of satisfaction with the fashion republic is working, Californians are divided most whether Americans of different political positions can even so come together and work out their differences. Xl-nine percent are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more than recent years, but has decreased vii points since we commencement asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, only earlier the 2020 full general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of dissimilar political views will be able to come up together. Across regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Surface area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, only the post-obit groups have a majority or more than who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.

figure - Californians are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come together and work out differences

Blessing Ratings

With most two weeks to go before Governor Newsom's bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Blessing was nigh identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 pct or more than since January 2020. Today, nigh viii in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about 1 in x Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about half or more than corroborate of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.

With all 80 state associates positions and half of state senate seats upwardly for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the style that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; blessing is highest in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. About half across racial/indigenous groups approve, and blessing is much higher amongst younger Californians.

figure - About half approve of the governor and state legislature

Majorities of California adults (53%) and probable voters (52%) approve of the way President Biden is handling his task, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden's blessing rating among adults has been at 50 percent or higher since nosotros first asked this question in January 2021. Today, almost eight in x Democrats corroborate of Biden'south job functioning, compared to most 4 in ten independents and one in x Republicans. Approval is higher in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more than beyond demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approval of Congress remains low, with fewer than four in x adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress among adults has been below twoscore percent for all of 2022 afterward seeing a brief run higher up twoscore percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups corroborate of Congress.

figure - About half continue to approve of President Biden; approval of Congress remains low

U.s. Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this Nov—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris's term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approval of 46 per centum of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don't know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don't know). Approving in March was at 44 pct for adults and 39 per centum for likely voters. Today, Padilla'south approval rating is much higher among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Surface area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the US senator, compared to four in 10 in Orange/San Diego and one in three in the Central Valley. Beyond demographic groups, about half or more approve amid women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like across pedagogy and income groups, with simply fewer than half approving.

U.s. Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this November—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and probable voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don't know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don't know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Today, Feinstein's approval rating is far college among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Beyond regions, approval reaches a majority just in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, blessing reaches a bulk just among African Americans